Perbandingan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins dan Holt-Winters No Seasonal pada Peramalan Jumlah Penderita ISPA di Kota Malang

  • Nanta Sigit STIKes Panti Waluya Malang
  • Arief Setiyoargo STIKes Panti Waluya Malang

Abstract

ISPA is an acute respiratory disease with special attention to pneumonia (ISPA), and not an ear and throat disease. In order to make plans to reduce the number of ISPA sufferers in the regions with effective and responsible principles, valid forecasts are needed. There is a relatively large difference between targets and achievements in tackling ISPA sufferers in Malang City during 2017 - 2020, and given the importance of forecasting as an indicator of reducing ISPA sufferers, it is deemed necessary to conduct research on the application of the Box-Jenkins model in forecasting ISPA patients. This study aims to create an estimation model for patients with ISPA in Malang Regency using data from the Health Office from 2017 to 2020. The analytical technique applied is the Box-Jenkins model or the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results showed that by using data from the Malang City Health Office from 2014 to 2019, it was concluded that the best forecasting model was ARIMA(1,1,0). Researchers hope that the forecasting method and forecasting results can be used as additional information for the health department in Malang City in determining policies that must be taken in the prevention of ISPA sufferers according to the needs of patients in Malang City.

References

Anisyah, Luluk, & Sigit, Nanta. (2020). Pemberian Edukasi Terkait Hipertensi Kepada Pendamping/Pengasuh Di Panti Werdha Lansia Pangesti Lawang Kabupaten Malang. Jurnal Pelayanan dan Pengabdian Masyarakat (Pamas), 4(2), 91-99.
RI, Kemenkes. (2010). ISPA Balita Buletin Jendela Epidemiologi Vol. 3.
RI, Kemenkes. (2011). Pedoman Pengendalian Infeksi Saluran Pernafasan Akut. Dirjen Pengendalian Penyakit dan Penyehatan Lingkungan
RI, Kemenkes. (2011). Standar Antropometri Penilaian Status Gizi Anak
RI, Kemenkes. (2012). Pedoman Pemberantasan Penyakit Infeksi Saluran Pernapasan Akut untuk Penanggulangan ISPA pada Balita
RI, Kemenkes. (2014). Penanggulangan Penyakit Menular
RI, Kemenkes. (2015). Rencana Strategis Kementerian Kesehatan Tahun 2015-2019.
Sigit, Nanta, & Marbun, Romaden. (2021). UPAYA PENCEGAHAN JUMLAH PENDERITA PNEUMONI DI MASYARAKAT DI ERA PANDEMI COVID 19. SELAPARANG Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Berkemajuan, 4(3), 815-819.
Sigit, Nanta, & PK, Ida Ayu. (2021). Perbandingan Model Transfer Function Dan Model Neural Network Untuk Prediksi Banyak Kasus Demam Berdarah Di Kota Malang. Jurnal Ilmu Kesehatan MAKIA, 11(1), 1-9.
Sigit, Nanta, & Setiyoargo, A. (2020). Analisis Peramalan Jumlah Penderita Hipertensi Pada Lansia Di Kabupaten Malang Menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins. Jurnal Rekam Medis dan Informasi Kesehatan, 3(1).
Sigit, Nanta, & Setiyoargo, A. (2020). Analisis Peramalan Jumlah Penderita Hipertensi Pada Lansia Di Kabupaten Malang Menggunakan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins. Jurnal Rekam Medis dan Informasi Kesehatan, 3(1).
Sigit, Nanta, & Sugiyanto. (2021). Optimalisasi Peran Kader Kesehatan Dalam Upaya Penurunan Jumlah Penderita ISPA di Era Pandemi Covid 19. Jurnal ABDIMASA Pengabdian Masyarakat, 4(2).
Sigit, Nanta, Debora, Oda, & Lahardo, Devanus. (2020). Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Dalam Penerapan Self Management Untuk Mencegah Hipertensi Pada Lansia Di Dusun Sukosari Desa Pandansari, Poncokusumo, Kabupaten Malang. ABDIMAS UNWAHAS, 5(2).
W, Makridakis, & Gee, Mc. (2013). Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan Vol. 2.
Wei, W., W. S. (2011). Time Analysis Univariate and Multivariate Methods
Published
2021-12-22
Abstract viewed = 2 times
pdf downloaded = 4 times